Technical
Trend, momentum and market structure right now.
Fundamental
Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk.
Quantitative
Momentum term structure, volatility and tail risk.
Regime
PSX breadth and index direction — the base rate.
Consensus forecast
Four independent models, pooled in log-odds space — the aggregation Metaculus uses for its community prediction. Extreme, well-evidenced views are respected instead of averaged into mush.
| Model | Probability | Weight | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical trend model | 1.35 | Blended 20/60/180-session regression, RSI, MACD, moving-average structure. | |
| Quantitative distribution | 1.20 | Log-normal terminal distribution with volatility term structure and fat-tail widening. | |
| Fundamental factor model | 0.90 | Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk from reported financials. | |
| Market regime / breadth | 0.60 | KSE-100 direction and advance/decline breadth set the base rate. | |
| Pooled consensus | — | Log-odds (logit) pooling, evidence-weighted — the aggregation used by Metaculus for its community prediction. |
Forecast markets
Each question is priced like a binary contract: the YES price in cents is the model's probability, the spread widens when the models disagree. Every market carries an explicit resolution rule and is graded against the official PSX close, so the track record is auditable.
Will NRL close higher one week from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 546.90.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will NRL gain more than 3% within one week?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 563.31.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will NRL close higher one month from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 546.90.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will NRL gain more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 574.25.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will NRL fall more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 29 Nov 2026 is below PKR 519.56.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will NRL gain more than 10% within three months?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of NRL on 30 Jan 2027 is at or above PKR 601.59.
Spread 8¢ · Resolves 30 Jan 2027
Quantitative probability bands
A log-normal terminal distribution with a volatility term structure and fat-tail widening from realised excess kurtosis (1.19). Read it as "where the price plausibly lands", not "where it will land".
| Horizon | P10 | P25 | Median | P75 | P90 | P(up) | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session1 sessions | 520.63 | 534.65 | 550.67+0.69% | 567.16 | 582.43 | 56% |
|
| One week5 sessions | 498.39 | 528.89 | 564.97+3.30% | 603.52 | 640.45 | 63% |
|
| One month22 sessions | 475.57 | 538.68 | 618.66+13.12% | 710.52 | 804.81 | 73% |
|
| Three months66 sessions | 475.40 | 589.91 | 749.76+37.09% | 952.92 | 1,182.46 | 81% |
|
Threshold probabilities — one month
Technical read
- Upward price trend of 1.838 PKR/session over the blended 20/60/180-session regression (fit R² 0.34).
- RSI(14) at 59.9 — neutral momentum.
- Price is above the 50-session average (482.37).
- Long-term structure is bullish versus the 200-session average (405.93).
- MACD histogram positive (0.454) — buyers in control.
- Daily volatility 4.20% drives the projection band width.
| RSI (14) | 59.9 |
| MACD / signal | 15.670 / 15.217 |
| EMA 12 / 26 | 530.00 / 514.33 |
| SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | 524.37 / 482.37 / 405.93 |
| Support / resistance | 366.62 / 564.98 |
| 52-week range | 276.36 — 564.98 |
| Trend fit (R²) | 0.345 |
Fundamental read
- Fundamental record present but sparse.
| P/E | — |
| Dividend yield | — |
| Debt / equity | — |
| Sector | Sector 0825 |
How to trade this responsibly
- Start with the band, not the target. The one-month 80% band is PKR 475.57 to 804.81 — that is roughly 60.2% wide. If your position cannot survive the bottom of that band, it is too big.
- Let fundamentals pick, technicals time. Fundamental score 28/100 says whether the business earns your capital; technical score 91/100 says whether now is the moment.
- Respect the base rate. The PSX regime reads Risk-off (25/100). Long setups in a risk-off tape need a bigger edge.
- Convert probability into size. At 65% consensus and a 34.0% upside band, a half-Kelly stake is small. Full conviction sizing on a 5-point edge is how accounts die.
- Write the invalidation down before you enter. A close below PKR 366.62 breaks the current structure and the setup is over — no renegotiating.
AI trading guide — NRL
Gemini interpretation of the v4.1 multi-lens model
QW Market Intelligence AI — PSX Research Assistant
Built by QW Hosting. For educational and research purposes only. Not investment advice.
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National Refinery Limited (NRL) Multi-Lens Analysis
1. The One-Paragraph Thesis
National Refinery Limited (NRL) presents a compelling divergence between strong short-to-medium-term momentum and a cautious broader market context. Trading at PKR 546.90 with a positive model signal, the stock exhibits robust quantitative strength, highlighted by strong multi-month momentum and high trading liquidity on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). However, this bullish technical posture coexists with a defensive macroeconomic regime characterized by weak broader market breadth and sparse fundamental visibility. Investors evaluating NRL must weigh the continuation of its upward price trends against considerable volatility, sector risks, and the absence of clear fundamental anchors.
2. What the Technical Picture Allows
The technical and quantitative lenses reveal significant upward momentum, yielding a high technical score supported by multi-period price gains.
- Momentum: Strong historical performance is evident, with 1-month momentum at 8.12% and 12-month momentum reaching 45.70%, pointing to sustained buyer interest on the PSX.
- Volatility: The 30-day volatility of 4.20% and a maximum historical drawdown of 40.37% indicate that while the trend is upward, price swings are sharp and require careful risk management.
- Scope for Action: The technical setup permits trend-following strategies or swing entries, provided participants respect the elevated volatility and do not chase momentum blindly without a defined exit plan.
3. What the Fundamentals Support or Contradict
The fundamental lens presents a contrasting picture, warranting caution for value-oriented retail investors and analysts.
- Data Availability: Fundamental records for NRL in this dataset are sparse, with key metrics such as P/E ratio, dividend yield (DY), debt-to-equity (D/E), and Return on Equity (ROE) currently unavailable or not fully populated.
- Risk Score: A fundamental risk score of 60, alongside a low overall fundamental score of 28, contradicts the high-flying technical momentum, suggesting that price appreciation is currently driven more by market flows and sector sentiment than clear underlying balance-sheet transparency.
- Sector Dynamics: Operating within the refinery sector, NRL is exposed to heavy regulatory shifts, furnace oil demand changes, and foreign exchange fluctuations affecting crude oil imports.
4. How to Read the Probability Band in Position-Sizing Terms
The one-month predictive model points to a median expected target of roughly PKR 618.66, with a modeled probability of an upward move (prob_up) estimated at 72.6% by the resolution date of November 29, 2026.
- Upside vs. Downside Probabilities: The model outlines a 64.17% chance of achieving at least a 5% gain, weighed against a 19.75% probability of a 5% pullback.
- Position Sizing Application: Because the 5th percentile outcome (p05) drops to PKR 441.40—reflecting a high-volatility tail risk ($\sigma$ of 20.25%)—retail investors should use these probability bands to size positions conservatively. A wider potential distribution demands smaller capital allocations to prevent adverse volatility from damaging an overall portfolio.
5. The Single Cleanest Invalidation Level
The single cleanest downside invalidation level for this setup is the -10% threshold price of PKR 492.21 (associated with an 86.74% cumulative probability threshold in the distribution model). A decisive break below PKR 492.21 would invalidate the bullish short-term thesis, signaling that sellers have overcome key technical supports and that the prevailing broader "Risk-off" market regime (index breadth at 0.22) is overpowering NRL's independent momentum.
Probabilities are model output conditioned on historical PSX price behaviour and filed financials. They cannot price news, policy shocks or liquidity events. Nothing here is investment advice.
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