Technical
Trend, momentum and market structure right now.
Fundamental
Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk.
Quantitative
Momentum term structure, volatility and tail risk.
Regime
PSX breadth and index direction — the base rate.
Consensus forecast
Four independent models, pooled in log-odds space — the aggregation Metaculus uses for its community prediction. Extreme, well-evidenced views are respected instead of averaged into mush.
| Model | Probability | Weight | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical trend model | 1.03 | Blended 20/60/180-session regression, RSI, MACD, moving-average structure. | |
| Quantitative distribution | 1.20 | Log-normal terminal distribution with volatility term structure and fat-tail widening. | |
| Fundamental factor model | 0.90 | Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk from reported financials. | |
| Market regime / breadth | 0.60 | KSE-100 direction and advance/decline breadth set the base rate. | |
| Pooled consensus | — | Log-odds (logit) pooling, evidence-weighted — the aggregation used by Metaculus for its community prediction. |
Forecast markets
Each question is priced like a binary contract: the YES price in cents is the model's probability, the spread widens when the models disagree. Every market carries an explicit resolution rule and is graded against the official PSX close, so the track record is auditable.
Will PPL close higher one week from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 231.45.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will PPL gain more than 3% within one week?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 238.39.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will PPL close higher one month from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 231.45.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PPL gain more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 243.02.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PPL fall more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 29 Nov 2026 is below PKR 219.88.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PPL gain more than 10% within three months?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PPL on 30 Jan 2027 is at or above PKR 254.60.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 30 Jan 2027
Quantitative probability bands
A log-normal terminal distribution with a volatility term structure and fat-tail widening from realised excess kurtosis (1.81). Read it as "where the price plausibly lands", not "where it will land".
| Horizon | P10 | P25 | Median | P75 | P90 | P(up) | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session1 sessions | 226.52 | 228.93 | 231.65+0.09% | 234.39 | 236.89 | 52% |
|
| One week5 sessions | 221.04 | 226.34 | 232.38+0.40% | 238.58 | 244.30 | 54% |
|
| One month22 sessions | 211.57 | 222.35 | 234.98+1.53% | 248.33 | 260.98 | 57% |
|
| Three months66 sessions | 200.60 | 218.64 | 240.59+3.95% | 264.75 | 288.56 | 61% |
|
Threshold probabilities — one month
Technical read
- Downward price trend of 0.111 PKR/session over the blended 20/60/180-session regression (fit R² 0.03).
- RSI(14) at 55.2 — neutral momentum.
- Price is above the 50-session average (225.95).
- Long-term structure is bullish versus the 200-session average (230.00).
- MACD histogram positive (1.258) — buyers in control.
- Daily volatility 1.64% drives the projection band width.
| RSI (14) | 55.2 |
| MACD / signal | 0.079 / -1.179 |
| EMA 12 / 26 | 227.31 / 227.23 |
| SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | 225.77 / 225.95 / 230.00 |
| Support / resistance | 211.10 / 252.66 |
| 52-week range | 180.19 — 281.52 |
| Trend fit (R²) | 0.032 |
Fundamental read
- Fundamental record present but sparse.
| P/E | — |
| Dividend yield | — |
| Debt / equity | — |
| Sector | Sector 0820 |
How to trade this responsibly
- Start with the band, not the target. The one-month 80% band is PKR 211.57 to 260.98 — that is roughly 21.3% wide. If your position cannot survive the bottom of that band, it is too big.
- Let fundamentals pick, technicals time. Fundamental score 28/100 says whether the business earns your capital; technical score 81/100 says whether now is the moment.
- Respect the base rate. The PSX regime reads Risk-off (25/100). Long setups in a risk-off tape need a bigger edge.
- Convert probability into size. At 54% consensus and a 11.2% upside band, a half-Kelly stake is small. Full conviction sizing on a 5-point edge is how accounts die.
- Write the invalidation down before you enter. A close below PKR 211.10 breaks the current structure and the setup is over — no renegotiating.
AI trading guide — PPL
Gemini interpretation of the v4.1 multi-lens model
Disclaimer: This guide is prepared by QW Market Intelligence AI for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute guaranteed investment advice, a price target certainty, or a direct buy/sell instruction. Always perform your own due diligence before trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).
One-Paragraph Thesis
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) currently trades at PKR 231.45 under a cautious "Hold" stance, underpinned by a composite model score of 52 and a neutral consensus of 0.54. The broader market environment leans firmly "Risk-off," reflected by poor PSX breadth (0.22 advancer-to-decliner ratio) and a negative index move of 0.95%. While PPL benefits from strong intermediate momentum over a 12-month horizon (20.43%) and robust technical readings, its near-term price action faces headwinds from recent 1-month and 3-month drawdowns alongside sparse fundamental reporting metrics. Investors must weigh the exploration and production (E&P) sector's structural foreign exchange and dividend potential against macroeconomic volatility and circular debt risks.
What the Technical Picture Allows
- Technical Strength: PPL displays a strong technical score of 81, suggesting resilient price behavior relative to parts of the wider market.
- Momentum Divergence: The stock shows positive 6-month (5.03%) and 12-month (20.43%) momentum, which allows for continuation strategies if broader market sentiment recovers.
- Short-Term Pullback: Conversely, 1-month (-5.78%) and 3-month (-7.07%) momentum indicators signal cooling price action, warning traders against aggressive breakout buying in the immediate term.
- Volatility Boundaries: With a 30-day volatility of 1.64 and a max historical drawdown of 30.7%, technical setups permit mean-reversion trading rather than blind trend-following.
What the Fundamentals Support or Contradict
- Sparse Metrics: PPL's fundamental score sits at 28, characterized by a sparse record where specific price-to-earnings (PE), dividend yield (DY), and return on equity (ROE) metrics are currently unpopulated in the dataset.
- Risk Exposure: The fundamental risk sub-score is elevated at 60, directly contradicting any aggressive growth narrative and pointing to systemic sector challenges like gas pricing disputes and receivables.
- Macro Support: Historically, large-cap PSX E&P firms benefit from USD-pegged revenues or energy price adjustments, supporting long-term value, but near-term financial transparency remains constrained by limited data availability.
How to Read the Probability Band in Position-Sizing Terms
- Expected Outlook: One-month statistical modeling projects an expected price of PKR 235.77 (a mild upward shift of 1.53%), with a 57.33% probability of closing positive over the monthly cycle.
- Downside Risk Management: The probability distribution outlines a 79.14% chance that PPL stays above a 5% decline (threshold price PKR 219.88) and a 92.94% chance of staying above a 10% decline (threshold price PKR 208.31).
- Sizing Application: Because the 90th percentile upside sits at PKR 260.98 versus a 10th percentile downside of PKR 211.57, risk-averse retail participants should scale down position sizes. Allocating capital in smaller tranches helps absorb potential drops toward the 55th-60th probability percentiles without breaching risk tolerance limits.
The Single Cleanest Invalidation Level
- Invalidation Level: A decisive break and close below the PKR 219.88 level (representing approximately a 5% decline from the current price, aligning with the 79.14% probability threshold and historical volatility bands).
- Rationale: If PPL breaches this floor under the current "Risk-off" market regime (breadth score of 25), it invalidates the short-term stabilization thesis, signaling accelerating selling pressure that could rapidly test deeper support zones near the PKR 208 mark.
Probabilities are model output conditioned on historical PSX price behaviour and filed financials. They cannot price news, policy shocks or liquidity events. Nothing here is investment advice.
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