PSO trading guide
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited · PKR 351.07 -0.42% · Forecast · Company · Scanner
Technical
Trend, momentum and market structure right now.
Fundamental
Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk.
Quantitative
Momentum term structure, volatility and tail risk.
Regime
PSX breadth and index direction — the base rate.
Consensus forecast
Four independent models, pooled in log-odds space — the aggregation Metaculus uses for its community prediction. Extreme, well-evidenced views are respected instead of averaged into mush.
| Model | Probability | Weight | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical trend model | 1.36 | Blended 20/60/180-session regression, RSI, MACD, moving-average structure. | |
| Quantitative distribution | 1.20 | Log-normal terminal distribution with volatility term structure and fat-tail widening. | |
| Fundamental factor model | 0.90 | Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk from reported financials. | |
| Market regime / breadth | 0.60 | KSE-100 direction and advance/decline breadth set the base rate. | |
| Pooled consensus | — | Log-odds (logit) pooling, evidence-weighted — the aggregation used by Metaculus for its community prediction. |
Forecast markets
Each question is priced like a binary contract: the YES price in cents is the model's probability, the spread widens when the models disagree. Every market carries an explicit resolution rule and is graded against the official PSX close, so the track record is auditable.
Will PSO close higher one week from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 351.07.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will PSO gain more than 3% within one week?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 5 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 361.60.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 5 Nov 2026
Will PSO close higher one month from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 351.07.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PSO gain more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 29 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 368.62.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PSO fall more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 29 Nov 2026 is below PKR 333.52.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Will PSO gain more than 10% within three months?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of PSO on 30 Jan 2027 is at or above PKR 386.18.
Spread 6¢ · Resolves 30 Jan 2027
Quantitative probability bands
A log-normal terminal distribution with a volatility term structure and fat-tail widening from realised excess kurtosis (4.36). Read it as "where the price plausibly lands", not "where it will land".
| Horizon | P10 | P25 | Median | P75 | P90 | P(up) | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session1 sessions | 338.34 | 343.10 | 348.48-0.74% | 353.93 | 358.91 | 37% |
|
| One week5 sessions | 317.30 | 327.38 | 338.95-3.45% | 350.93 | 362.07 | 25% |
|
| One month22 sessions | 267.54 | 285.67 | 307.26-12.48% | 330.48 | 352.88 | 11% |
|
| Three months66 sessions | 196.40 | 220.02 | 249.61-28.90% | 283.19 | 317.25 | 3% |
|
Threshold probabilities — one month
Technical read
- Downward price trend of 0.673 PKR/session over the blended 20/60/180-session regression (fit R² 0.36).
- RSI(14) at 40.3 — neutral momentum.
- Price is below the 50-session average (353.25).
- Long-term structure is bearish versus the 200-session average (387.82).
- MACD histogram positive (0.189) — buyers in control.
- Daily volatility 2.00% drives the projection band width.
| RSI (14) | 40.3 |
| MACD / signal | -2.667 / -2.856 |
| EMA 12 / 26 | 349.34 / 352.01 |
| SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | 351.89 / 353.25 / 387.82 |
| Support / resistance | 337.07 / 382.02 |
| 52-week range | 328.69 — 503.21 |
| Trend fit (R²) | 0.356 |
Fundamental read
- Fundamental record present but sparse.
| P/E | — |
| Dividend yield | — |
| Debt / equity | — |
| Sector | Sector 0821 |
How to trade this responsibly
- Start with the band, not the target. The one-month 80% band is PKR 267.54 to 352.88 — that is roughly 24.3% wide. If your position cannot survive the bottom of that band, it is too big.
- Let fundamentals pick, technicals time. Fundamental score 28/100 says whether the business earns your capital; technical score 26/100 says whether now is the moment.
- Respect the base rate. The PSX regime reads Risk-off (25/100). Long setups in a risk-off tape need a bigger edge.
- Convert probability into size. At 25% consensus and a 13.0% upside band, a half-Kelly stake is small. Full conviction sizing on a 5-point edge is how accounts die.
- Write the invalidation down before you enter. A close below PKR 337.07 breaks the current structure and the setup is over — no renegotiating.
AI trading guide — PSO
Gemini interpretation of the v4.1 multi-lens model
QW Market Intelligence AI — PSX Research Desk
Educational & Research Report | Built by QW Hosting
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Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Multi-Lens Diagnostic Guide
1. The One-Paragraph Thesis
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO) is currently navigating a challenging macroeconomic and sector-specific environment at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), trading at PKR 351.07 within a broader risk-off market regime. Quantitative and technical models generate a cautious "Sell" signal with a composite score of 30 and 64% confidence, reflecting persistent downward momentum across one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons. While market participants recognize PSO’s systemic importance as the country's leading petroleum marketer and its strategic role in energy supply chains, the current structural headwinds—characterized by weak market breadth, a negative monthly expected price projection pointing toward roughly PKR 309, and sparse fundamental visibility—highlight significant downside pressures that require disciplined risk management.
2. What the Technical Picture Allows
The technical lens, carrying a low score of 26, suggests that sellers maintain control over PSO's near-term price action.
- Momentum Decay: Trailing momentum indicators show consistent contraction (-6.5% over 1 month, -23.3% over 12 months), leaving little room for aggressive long entries without a confirmed trend reversal.
- Volatility Dynamics: Thirty-day volatility stands at roughly 2.0% with a volatility term structure of 1.307, indicating elevated short-term price swings relative to longer-term baselines (90-day volatility at 1.53).
- Trading Allowances: Short-term market participants should look for signs of exhaustion or oversold bounces rather than chasing downward momentum. Conversely, swing traders are constrained to defensive strategies, as the prevailing technical structure allows for continued testing of lower support zones.
3. What the Fundamentals Support or Contradict
Fundamental evaluation of PSO is constrained by sparse underlying data records, yielding a fundamental score of 28 alongside a higher risk score of 60.
- Macroeconomic Realities: PSO’s financial health is inextricably linked to systemic circular debt, delayed energy payments, and sovereign liquidity challenges within Pakistan's energy sector.
- Contradictions: While PSO's dominant market share and high trading liquidity (evidenced by consistent session turnover) normally support a defensive investment case, the lack of robust forward-looking valuation metrics (such as clear P/E, dividend yield, or ROE figures in this dataset) contradicts any aggressive accumulation thesis based purely on balance-sheet strength. Investors must weigh the company's vital national utility against its heavy exposure to state-directed receivables.
4. How to Read the Probability Band in Position-Sizing Terms
The one-month predictive distribution model outlines a median expected price of approximately PKR 307.26 (and an expected value of PKR 309.06), with a roughly 77.6% estimated probability of a 5% or greater decline, contrasted against a modest 10.9% probability of upward movement.
- Risk-Adjusted Sizing: Because the distribution leans heavily toward negative outcomes (p05 at PKR 257.24 and p25 at PKR 285.67), position sizing must be conservative.
- Capital Preservation: Traders utilizing this probability band should limit capital allocation to fractional risk units (e.g., restricting exposure to minimal portfolio percentages) to absorb potential drawdowns toward the 50th or 25th percentile markers without threatening overall portfolio integrity.
5. The Single Cleanest Invalidation Level
- Invalidation Threshold: A sustained daily close and high-volume breakout above the PKR 386.18 level (corresponding to the +10% threshold in the probability distribution model).
- Rationale: This level invalidates the current near-term bearish thesis by breaking through multiple upper standard deviation bands, signaling unexpected institutional accumulation, a reversal in broader market breadth, or sudden positive catalysts in the energy sector that override prevailing downward momentum.
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Disclaimer: This report is prepared strictly for educational and research purposes by QW Market Intelligence AI. It does not constitute guaranteed investment advice, explicit price targets presented as certainty, or direct buy/sell instructions. Always perform your own due diligence and consult a certified financial advisor before executing trades on the PSX.
Probabilities are model output conditioned on historical PSX price behaviour and filed financials. They cannot price news, policy shocks or liquidity events. Nothing here is investment advice.
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