Technical
Trend, momentum and market structure right now.
Fundamental
Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk.
Quantitative
Momentum term structure, volatility and tail risk.
Regime
PSX breadth and index direction — the base rate.
Consensus forecast
Four independent models, pooled in log-odds space — the aggregation Metaculus uses for its community prediction. Extreme, well-evidenced views are respected instead of averaged into mush.
| Model | Probability | Weight | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical trend model | 1.86 | Blended 20/60/180-session regression, RSI, MACD, moving-average structure. | |
| Quantitative distribution | 1.20 | Log-normal terminal distribution with volatility term structure and fat-tail widening. | |
| Fundamental factor model | 0.90 | Value, growth, quality and balance-sheet risk from reported financials. | |
| Market regime / breadth | 0.60 | KSE-100 direction and advance/decline breadth set the base rate. | |
| Pooled consensus | — | Log-odds (logit) pooling, evidence-weighted — the aggregation used by Metaculus for its community prediction. |
Forecast markets
Each question is priced like a binary contract: the YES price in cents is the model's probability, the spread widens when the models disagree. Every market carries an explicit resolution rule and is graded against the official PSX close, so the track record is auditable.
Will WTL close higher one week from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 7 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 1.00.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 7 Nov 2026
Will WTL gain more than 3% within one week?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 7 Nov 2026 is at or above PKR 1.03.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 7 Nov 2026
Will WTL close higher one month from now?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 1 Dec 2026 is at or above PKR 1.00.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 1 Dec 2026
Will WTL gain more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 1 Dec 2026 is at or above PKR 1.05.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 1 Dec 2026
Will WTL fall more than 5% within one month?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 1 Dec 2026 is below PKR 0.95.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 1 Dec 2026
Will WTL gain more than 10% within three months?
Resolves YES if the official PSX closing price of WTL on 1 Feb 2027 is at or above PKR 1.10.
Spread 7¢ · Resolves 1 Feb 2027
Quantitative probability bands
A log-normal terminal distribution with a volatility term structure and fat-tail widening from realised excess kurtosis (5.57). Read it as "where the price plausibly lands", not "where it will land".
| Horizon | P10 | P25 | Median | P75 | P90 | P(up) | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session1 sessions | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99-1.00% | 1.00 | 1.01 | 27% |
|
| One week5 sessions | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.95-5.00% | 0.98 | 1.00 | 9% |
|
| One month22 sessions | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.84-16.00% | 0.88 | 0.92 | 1% |
|
| Three months66 sessions | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.64-36.00% | 0.69 | 0.75 | 1% |
|
Threshold probabilities — one month
Technical read
- Downward price trend of 0.007 PKR/session over the blended 20/60/180-session regression (fit R² 0.86).
- RSI(14) at 7.1 — oversold, bounce potential.
- Price is below the 50-session average (1.17).
- Long-term structure is bearish versus the 200-session average (1.39).
- MACD histogram negative (-0.007) — sellers in control.
- Daily volatility 1.32% drives the projection band width.
| RSI (14) | 7.1 |
| MACD / signal | -0.049 / -0.042 |
| EMA 12 / 26 | 1.05 / 1.10 |
| SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | 1.09 / 1.17 / 1.39 |
| Support / resistance | 1.00 / 1.33 |
| 52-week range | 1.00 — 2.23 |
| Trend fit (R²) | 0.860 |
Fundamental read
- Fundamental record present but sparse.
| P/E | — |
| Dividend yield | — |
| Debt / equity | — |
| Sector | Sector 0828 |
How to trade this responsibly
- Start with the band, not the target. The one-month 80% band is PKR 0.76 to 0.92 — that is roughly 16.0% wide. If your position cannot survive the bottom of that band, it is too big.
- Let fundamentals pick, technicals time. Fundamental score 28/100 says whether the business earns your capital; technical score 11/100 says whether now is the moment.
- Respect the base rate. The PSX regime reads Risk-off (25/100). Long setups in a risk-off tape need a bigger edge.
- Convert probability into size. At 16% consensus and a 8.0% upside band, a half-Kelly stake is small. Full conviction sizing on a 5-point edge is how accounts die.
- Write the invalidation down before you enter. A close below PKR 1.00 breaks the current structure and the setup is over — no renegotiating.
AI trading guide — WTL
Gemini interpretation of the v4.1 multi-lens model
I am QW Market Intelligence AI, a Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) research assistant built by QW Hosting. Below is an educational market intelligence guide on Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL), prepared strictly for research and analytical purposes.
1. WTL Multi-Lens Thesis
Worldcall Telecom Limited (WTL) is currently exhibiting a defensive risk profile on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, trading at PKR 1.00 amid a broader market regime characterized by broad-based selling pressure (market breadth at 0.22 advancers to decliners). The multi-lens quantitative model yields a composite score of 19 out of 100 with a "Strong Sell" signal at 77% confidence. While WTL remains one of the most actively traded high-volume scrips on the PSX, offering high liquidity for short-term retail participants, downward momentum is prominent across multiple timeframes. Investors must weigh the speculative liquidity appeal of a nominal sub-par share price against heavy negative momentum, weak fundamental depth, and a probability distribution heavily skewed toward downside continuation.
2. Technical Picture and Momentum
The quantitative and technical lens (technical score: 11, quant score: 18) indicates persistent weakness:
- Momentum Decay: WTL shows negative momentum across all tracked horizons, with a 1-month return decline of -15.25%, a 3-month drop of -22.48%, and a 12-month contraction of -37.11%.
- Volatility and Drawdown: The stock features elevated volatility (30-day volatility at 1.31 and a historical max drawdown of 55.16%), meaning price swings can be sharp even within a downward trend.
- Trading Allowances: The technical structure does not support long-term trend-following investments. Instead, active market participants typically restrict their scope to very short-term mean-reversion scalp trades, keeping tight risk controls given the prevailing downward momentum.
3. Fundamental Realities
The fundamental lens (score: 28) shows a sparse financial record with key metrics like P/E, dividend yield (DY), debt-to-equity (D/E), and return on equity (ROE) largely unavailable or unmeasured in standard reporting frameworks.
- Quality vs. Risk: The fundamental sub-scores show a low quality rating (25) contrasted against a high risk rating (60).
- Support vs. Contradiction: While the nominal share price of PKR 1.00 often attracts retail interest under the psychological assumption of "cheapness," the lack of robust earnings growth and missing profitability metrics contradict any fundamental buy thesis. Investors are cautioned that a low share price does not equate to fundamental value.
4. Reading the Probability Band for Position Sizing
The 1-month forward projection model (resolving around late 2026, based on current statistical inputs) outlines significant downward skew:
- Probability Distribution: The model calculates a meager 0.83% probability of an upward move (prob_up), contrasted with a 95.56% probability of a downward move of 5% or more.
- Expected Price Paths: The median expected price sits lower at PKR 0.84, with the 5th percentile (p05) stretching down to PKR 0.74.
- Position-Sizing Implications: Because the probability band indicates an overwhelming statistical tilt toward further capital depreciation, prudent risk management dictates minimizing exposure. For retail traders choosing to engage WTL for high-frequency liquidity, position sizes should be kept to a strict fraction of total risk capital, ensuring that a slide toward the lower probability thresholds (such as the PKR 0.90 or PKR 0.84 levels) would not materially impact overall portfolio health.
5. Single Cleanest Invalidation Level
- Invalidation Level: A sustained daily close and high-volume breakout above PKR 1.10.
- Rationale: In the context of the current bearish regime and negative momentum, a move past PKR 1.10 (representing the +10% threshold in the probability bands) would invalidate the immediate "Strong Sell" continuation thesis, signaling unexpected accumulation or a shift in market sentiment that requires a complete reassessment of the technical setup.
Probabilities are model output conditioned on historical PSX price behaviour and filed financials. They cannot price news, policy shocks or liquidity events. Nothing here is investment advice.
Ask the AI Analyst
Free. No login. Answers are grounded in the data shown on this page.